Larry Jagan
Asia Times online
February 16, 2012
ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ၏ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး ျဖစ္စဥ္သည္ သေဘာထားတင္းမာသူမ်ားႏွင့္ သေဘာထား ေပ်ာ့ေပ်ာင္း သူမ်ားၾကား အာဏာလြန္ဆြဲေနခ်ိန္ျဖစ္၍ မေရရာ မေသခ်ာေသ...းသည့္ အခ်ိန္ကာလတစ္ခု ျဖစ္သည္။ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္အေပၚ ႏိုင္ငံတကာ၏ ယုံၾကည္ကိုယ္စားမႈႏွင့္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး အေပၚ အားေပး ေနေသာ္လည္း ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ၏ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး ျဖစ္စဥ္မွာ မေရရာမေသခ်ာ ျဖစ္ေနဆဲ ျဖစ္သည္။
သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္၏ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ ေကာင္းေသာ္လည္း ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး ျဖစ္စဥ္မွာ အကန္႔အသတ္ ျဖင့္သာ ျဖစ္ေနေသးသည္။ ႏိုင္ငံေရးအက်ဥ္းသားမ်ား လႊတ္ေပးခဲ့ျခင္း အပါအဝင္ အမ်ိဳးသားဒီမိုကေရစီ အဖြဲ႔ခ်ဳပ္ကို ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲတြင္ ပါဝင္ယွဥ္ၿပိဳင္ခြင့္ ေပးခဲ့ျခင္းအေပၚ စိုးရိမ္မႈမ်ား ျမင့္တက္လာခဲ့ၿပီး ယင္းကို ျပန္လည္သုံးသပ္လာႏိုင္သည္။
သေဘာထားေပ်ာ့ေပ်ာင္းသည့္ ဝန္ႀကီးမ်ားသည္ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္ေခါင္းေဆာင္သည့္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲ မႈမ်ားကို ေထာက္ခံ၍ ဝိုင္းရံေပးေသာ္လည္း သေဘာထားတင္းမာသည့္ ဒုတိယသမၼတ ဦးတင္ေအာင္ျမင့္ဦး ႏွင့္ ဝန္ႀကီးအခ်ိဳ႕သည္ သမၼတႀကီးအေပၚ ဖိအားေပးမႈမ်ား ျပဳလုပ္ေနသျဖင့္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး ျဖစ္စဥ္ကို လမ္းေခ်ာ္သြားေစႏိုင္သည္။
ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ၏ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈမ်ားသည္ အစစ္အမွန္လား (သို႔မဟုတ္) အရပ္သားမ်က္ႏွာဖုံးျဖင့္ စစ္အာဏာကို ဖုံးအုပ္ထားသည့္ ဟန္ျပေျပာင္းလဲမႈလား ဆိုသည္ကို ေလ့လာသူပညာရွင္မ်ားႏွင့္ တက္ၾကြ လႈပ္ရွားသူမ်ားက ေဝခြဲမရ ျဖစ္ေနၾကသည္။ ဒီမိုကေရစီေခါင္းေဆာင္ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္သည္ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္၏ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး လမ္းစဥ္ကို မဝံ့မရဲျဖင့္ လက္ခံခဲ့ေသာ္လည္း သူမႏွင့္ ရင္းႏွီး သည့္ သတင္းအရင္းအျမစ္မ်ား၏ အဆိုအရ ယေန႔အထိ သတိထားေနရဆဲ ျဖစ္သည္ဟု ဆိုသည္။ စုစုေပါင္း အမတ္ေနရာ (၆၆၄)ေနရာတြင္ (၄၆)ေနရာကိုသာ ယွဥ္ၿပိဳင္ရမည္ ျဖစ္သည္။ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္း စုၾကည္သည္ ရန္ကုန္ၿမိဳ႕ဆင္ေျခဖုံးၿမိဳ႕နယ္တစ္ၿမိဳ႕နယ္မွ ဝင္ေရာက္ယွဥ္ၿပိဳင္မည္ ျဖစ္သည္။
အေမရိကန္ျပည္ေထာင္စုႏွင့္ ဥေရာပသမၼဂတို႔သည္ ဧၿပီလ(၁)ရက္ေန႔တြင္ က်င္းပမည့္ ၾကားျဖတ္ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲႏွင့္ တိုးတက္လာမည့္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး ျဖစ္စဥ္မ်ားႏွင့္အတူ စီးပြားေရး အခြင့္အလမ္းမ်ား၊ ဘ႑ာေရးအခြင့္အလမ္းမ်ားေပး၍ တုံ႔ျပန္သြားမည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း အခ်က္ျပထားၿပီး ျဖစ္သည္။ အစိုးရ အဖြဲ႔အတြင္းရွိ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲလိုသူမ်ားႏွင့္ သေဘာထားေပ်ာ့ေပ်ာင္းသူမ်ား မည္သည့္ အဖြဲ႔က အသားစီး ရသြားမည္လဲ ဆိုသည္ကို မၾကာမီ က်င္းပေတာ့မည့္ ၾကားျဖတ္ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲ က သက္ေသျပသြားမည္ ျဖစ္သည္။
အစိုးရအတြင္းစည္း၏ ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္အရ ဝန္ႀကီးအဖြဲ႔၏ (၂၀) ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းခန္႔သည္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရး သမားမ်ား ျဖစ္ၿပီး (၂၀) ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းခန္႔သည္ သေဘာထားတင္းမာသူမ်ား ျဖစ္ၾကသည္။ က်န္(၆၀) ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္း ခန္႔သည္ ၿခံစည္ရိုးေပၚတြင္ ခြထိုင္၍ အာဏာလြန္ဆြဲပြဲတြင္ မည္သူ အႏုိင္ရရွိမည္လဲ ဆိုသည္ကို ေစာင့္ၾကည့္ ေနသူမ်ား ျဖစ္ၾကသည္ဟု အစိုးရအတြင္းစည္းမွ သတင္းအျမစ္အမ်ား၏ အဆိုအရ သိရွိ ရသည္။
အစိုးရအဖြဲ႔အတြင္း အဖြဲ႔(၂)ဖြဲ႔ ကြဲေနသည္မွာ ေသခ်ာေၾကာင္း၊ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲလိုသည့္ အဖြဲ႔ႏွင့္ စစ္တပ္ ေက်ာေထာက္ေနာက္ခံျပဳထားသည့္ အဖြဲ႔ဟူ၍ ကြဲျပားေနသည္။ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊ ေခါင္းေဆာင္ သည့္ အစိုးရအဖြဲ႔တြင္ ပါဝင္ခဲ့ၾကေသာ ဝန္ႀကီးမ်ားကို ကန္႔လန္႔ကာ ေနာက္ကြယ္မွ ႀကိဳးကိုင္ ေနဆဲ ျဖစ္သည္။
သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္သည္ အစိုးရသစ္ မဟာဗ်ဴဟာ ရုပ္ေသးရုပ္တစ္ခုပင္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း တပ္မေတာ္အစိုးရ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးအဖြဲ႔ဝင္ေဟာင္း တစ္ဦးျဖစ္သည့္ ေအာင္လင္းထြဋ္က Asia Times On Line သို႔ ေျပာဆို ခဲ့သည္။ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊသည္ မူဝါဒမ်ားႏွင့္ အရာအားလုံးကို တိုက္ရိုက္ ထိန္းခ်ဳပ္ထားဆဲ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ၄င္းက ဆက္လက္ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံသည္ တပ္မေတာ္အစိုးရ၏ အုပ္ခ်ဳပ္မႈျဖင့္ ဆယ္စုႏွစ္ေပါင္းမ်ားစြာ ၾကာျမင့္ခဲ့ၿပီး ႏိုင္ငံမွာလည္း ဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးမႈနိမ့္က်ေနခဲ့သည့္အတြက္ ႏိုင္ငံကို ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲျခင္း၊ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းျခင္းႏွင့္ ဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးတိုးတက္ျခင္းဆီသို႔ ေခၚေဆာင္သြားရန္ ဦးသိန္းစိန္အစိုးရအဖြဲ႔၏ ထိပ္ပိုင္းေခါင္းေဆာင္မ်ားႏွင့္ ဆက္စပ္ေနသူမ်ားက သေဘာ မတူႏိုင္ ျဖစ္ေနၾကသည္။
ဦးသိန္းစိန္ႏွင့္ ၄င္းအား ေထာက္ခံသူမ်ားကို လူႀကီးလူေကာင္းဆန္သူမ်ား၊ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရးသမားမ်ား အျဖစ္ ဧၿပီလ(၁)ရက္ေန႔တြင္ ႏွလုံးေရာဂါျဖင့္ ကြယ္လြန္ခဲ့သည့္ ေဒါက္တာ ေနဝင္းေမာင္က ေျပာဆို ခဲ့သည္။ လက္ရွိအစိုးရအဖြဲ႔တြင္ ပါဝင္သည့္ စစ္တပ္ေခါင္းေဆာင္မ်ားႏွင့္ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္၏ ျပဳျပင္ ေျပာင္းလဲေရးကို ေထာက္ခံၾကသည့္ ဝန္ႀကီးမ်ားကို ျပည္သူ႔တာဝန္ကို ထမ္းေဆာင္ၾကမည့္ ကစားပြဲ တစ္ခုဆီသို႔ ဆြဲေဆာင္သြားၾကရန္ လက္ရွိအစိုးရအဖြဲ႔ႏွင့္ နီးစပ္သည့္ သတင္းအရင္းအျမစ္မ်ားက သတင္းေထာက္မ်ားကို ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။ ၄င္းတို႔သည္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊ၏ အာဏာရွင္ဆန္မႈ၊ အက်င့္ပ်က္ျခစားမႈ၊ နိုင္ငံတကာတြင္ အထီးက်န္ဆန္မႈႏွင့္ ႏိုင္ငံ၏ ပုံရိပ္ညွိႏြမ္းေနမႈမ်ားကို ရြံမုန္းၾကသူမ်ား ျဖစ္သည္။ ၄င္းတို႔သည္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊ၏ အခန္းက႑ကို ရပ္တန္႔၍ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္ ေခါင္းေဆာင္သည့္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈမ်ားကို အဓိက တြန္းအားေပးခဲ့ၾကသူမ်ား ျဖစ္သည္။
အစိုးရေဟာင္းလက္ထဲက ပ်က္စီးယိုယြင္းခဲ့မႈမ်ားကို ေရရွည္စီမံခ်က္ျဖင့္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈ ျပဳလုပ္ လိုေၾကာင္း သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္က ေနာ္ေဝးဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးတိုးတက္ေရး ဝန္ႀကီးကို ေျပာဆိုခဲ့ေၾကာင္း ရန္ကုန္ရွိ သံတမန္အသိုင္းအဝန္းက ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
သမၼတႀကီးဦးသိန္းစိန္သည္ အစိုးရေဟာင္းတြင္ ဝန္ႀကီးခ်ဳပ္အျဖစ္ ထမ္းေဆာင္ခဲ့စဥ္ကပင္ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲ မႈမ်ားကို ျပဳလုပ္လိုသူတစ္ဦး ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊ လြန္ခဲ့သည့္ (၁၀)စုႏွစ္ တစ္စုေက်ာ္ကတည္းက ျပဳျပင္ ေျပာင္းလဲ မႈမ်ား ျပဳလုပ္ရန္ ဆႏၵရွိေသာ္လည္း ထိုကဲ့သို႔ ျပဳလုပ္ရန္ အာဏာမရွိေၾကာင္း သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္၏ ဇနီးက ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ကို ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
ရင္ဖြင့္ခြင့္မရခဲ့တဲ့ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရးသမား
တပ္မေတာ္အစိုးရကို ဆန္႔က်င္သည့္ ၂၀၀၇ သံဃာ့အေရးအခင္းႏွင့္ ၂၀၀၈ နာဂစ္ဆုိက္ကလုန္းမုန္တိုင္းကို ကိုင္တြယ္ေဆာင္ရြက္ရန္ ဝန္ႀကီးခ်ဳပ္ ဦးသိန္းစိန္ကို တာဝန္ေပးအပ္ခဲ့ေၾကာင္း စစ္တပ္ႏွင့္ နီးစပ္သည့္ သတင္းအျမစ္မ်ားအရ သိရွိရသည္။ နာဂစ္ဆိုက္ကလုန္းဒဏ္ခံရသည့္ ေဒသသို႔ သြားေရာက္ စစ္ေဆးသည့္ အခါ ထိုစဥ္က ဝန္ႀကီးခ်ဳပ္အျဖစ္ တာဝန္ထမ္းေဆာင္ခဲ့သည့္ ဦးသိန္းစိန္ကို တုန္လႈပ္ေစခဲ့ေၾကာင္း သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္၏ လက္ေထာက္ႏွင့္ နီးစပ္သူ တစ္ဦးက Asia Time Online သို႔ ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
ျပည္သူမ်ား၏ ေၾကကြဲမႈမ်ားကို ေျဖသိမ့္ေပးလိုသည့္ စစ္သားမ်ား၊ ေကာင္းမြန္သည့္ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ ရွိသည့္ စစ္သည္မ်ားလည္း ရွိေၾကာင္း ျမန္မာ့ေရးရာကၽြမ္းက်င္သူ David Steinberg က ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။ ယင္းစစ္သားမ်ားသည္ စစ္တပ္၏ ဂုဏ္သိကၡာကို အဖတ္ဆယ္လိုသူ၊ အမ်ိဳးသားေရးစိတ္ဓာတ္ ျပင္းထန္ သူမ်ား ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္းလည္း ၄င္းက ဆက္လက္ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈမ်ားကို ယေန႔အခ်ိန္ထိ အဆက္မျပတ္ အေကာင္အထည္ေဖာ္ေနသည္ကို ေတြ႔ရွိရသည္။ ရထားဝန္ႀကီး ဦးေအာင္မင္းသည္ တိုင္းရင္းသားလက္နက္ကိုင္မ်ားႏွင့္ အပစ္အခတ္ရပ္စဲေရး သေဘာ တူညီခ်က္ ရရွိရန္ ေစ့စပ္ညွိႏိႈင္းေဆာင္ရြက္လွ်က္ ရွိသည္။ တိုင္းရင္းသား ေခါင္းေဆာင္ အခ်ိဳ႕ကလည္း ရထားဝန္ႀကီး ဦးေအာင္မင္းကို ယုံၾကည္ေၾကာင္း သတင္းေထာက္မ်ားကို ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
သေဘာထားတင္းမာမႈမ်ားကို အဆုံးသတ္ရန္ႏွင့္ ဆက္ဆံေရးရုံးမ်ား ဖြင့္လွစ္ႏိုင္ရန္အတြက္ လြန္ခဲ့သည့္ လတြင္ သေဘာတူညီခ်က္ လက္မွတ္ေရးထိုးႏိုင္ခဲ့ေၾကာင္း ( KNU) ေခါင္းေဆာင္ တစ္ဦးက Asia Time Online သို႔ ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။ ( KNU) အေနျဖင့္ ရထားလမ္းမ်ားကို တိုက္ခိုက္ျခင္းကို ေရွာင္က်ဥ္ရမည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊ ယင္းကို လိုက္နာေဆာင္ရြက္လိမ့္မည္ဟုလည္း ယုံၾကည္ေၾကာင္း ရထားဝန္ႀကီး ဦးေအာင္မင္း က ( KNU) ကို ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။ ယခုႏွစ္ အေစာပိုင္းက ( KNU) သည္ ရထားလမ္းမ်ားကို တိုက္ခိုက္မႈမ်ား ရွိခဲ့သည္။
ပုဂၢိဳလ္ေရးအရ ခ်ဥ္းကပ္မႈသည္ ေနာက္ဆုံးတြင္ လိုခ်င္သည့္ အေျဖႏွင့္ ေျပာင္းျပန္ ထြက္ေပၚလာႏိုင္ ေၾကာင္း၊ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ႏွင့္ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္ၾကား ပုဂၢိဳလ္ေရးအရ ရင္းႏွီးမႈ ရွိေနေစကာမူ ေအာင္ျမင္မႈ မရႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ျမန္မာအပါအဝင္ ေဒသတြင္းႏိုင္ငံမ်ားးတြင္ သံတမန္အျဖစ္ (၁၅)ႏွစ္ေက်ာ္ၾကာ ေဆာင္ရြက္ခဲ့သည့္ ဥေရာပသံတမန္ တစ္ဦးက ေျပာဆိုသည္။ ျဖစ္စဥ္တစ္ခုလုံးတြင္း ယင္းမွာ အဓိက အားနည္းခ်က္တစ္ခု ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊ အဓိက ေဆာင္ရြက္မည့္ မူၾကမ္းမရွိေၾကာင္း၊ အေျခအေန မ်ား ေျပာင္းလဲ လာသည့္တိုင္ေအာင္ ယင္းကို ေန႔ခ်င္းညခ်င္း ေဆာင္ရြက္၍ ရႏိုင္မည္ မဟုတ္ေၾကာင္း ၄င္းက ေျပာဆို ခဲ့သည္။
ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈမ်ား ျဖစ္ေပၚခဲ့သည့္တိုင္ အက်င့္ပ်က္ျခားစားမႈမ်ားႏွင့္ အၾကမ္းဖက္မႈမ်ား ဆက္လက္ ျဖစ္ေပၚေနပါက အႏၱရာယ္ ရွိေနႏိုင္ေသးေၾကာင္း ႏွစ္ေပါင္း(၂၀)အတြင္း ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံသို႔ ပထမဆုံး အႀကိမ္ သြားေရာက္လည္ပတ္ခဲ့သည့္ ဒီမိုကေရစီေရး တက္ၾကြလႈပ္ရွားမႈႏွင့္ ဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးတိုးတက္ေရး ပညာရွင္တစ္ဦး ျဖစ္သည့္ ေအာင္ႏိုင္ဦးက ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
သေဘာထားတင္းမာသူ ျဖစ္ေစ၊ သေဘာထားေပ်ာ့ေပ်ာင္းသူ ျဖစ္ေစ အဓိက ေဆာင္ရြက္ရမည့္ အခ်က္မွာ တည္ၿငိမ္းေရးႏွင့္ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရး ျဖစ္သည္။ ယင္းကို စိုးရိမ္သျဖင့္ ႏိုင္ငံေရးအက်ဥ္းသားမ်ား လႊတ္ေပးမည့္ အခ်က္ကို လအေတာ္ၾကာ ေႏွာင့္ေႏွးၾကန္႔ၾကာခဲ့သည္။ ထို႔ေၾကာင့္ ၂၀၀၇ သံဃာ့အေရးအခင္းတြင္ ဖမ္းဆီး၍ ေထာင္ဒဏ္(၆၈)ႏွစ္ ခ်မွတ္ျခင္းခံခဲ့ရသည့္ အရွင္ဂႏၼီရကို ျပန္လည္ဖမ္းဆီးခဲ့သည္။
ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊ၏ ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရးလမ္းစဥ္မွာလည္း ယင္းအတြက္ေၾကာင့္ ေႏွာင့္ေႏွး ၾကန္႔ၾကာ ခဲ့ျခင္း ျဖစ္သည္။ အာဏာကို မွ်ေဝရန္အတြက္သာ ရည္ရြယ္ခဲ့ျခင္းျဖစ္သည္။ မည္သူတစ္ဦး တစ္ေယာက္မွ် အာဏာရွင္ဆန္စြာျဖင့္ ၄င္း၏မိသားစုႏွင့္ စည္းစိမ္ဥစၥာကို မၿခိမ္းေျခာက္ ႏိုင္ေစရန္ ရည္ရြယ္ သည္။ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊသည္ ကာလရွည္ၾကာအာဏာရွင္ ျဖစ္ခဲ့သည့္ ဦးေနဝင္း၏ မိသားစုအဖြဲ႔ဝင္ မ်ားကို ဖမ္းဆီးခဲ့သည္။
လူႀကီးလူေကာင္းသေဘာတူညီခ်က္
မည္သို႔ပင္ျဖစ္ေစ သမၼတႀကီးဦးသိန္းစိန္၊ ေအာက္လႊတ္ေတာ္ ဥကၠဌ သူရဦးေရႊမန္းႏွင့္ ကာကြယ္ေရး ဦးစီးခ်ဳပ္ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ႀကီးမင္းေအာင္လိႈင္တို႔သည္ လူႀကီးလူေကာင္း သေဘာတူညီခ်က္သို႔ အေရာက္ သြားႏိုင္ ေၾကာင္း ႀကိဳတင္မျမင္ႏိုင္ခဲ့ေပ။ အဆိုပါ သေဘာတူညီခ်က္သည္ အရွိန္ရလာၿပီး ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲ ျဖစ္စဥ္တြင္ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ပါဝင္လာၿပီး ျပည္သူ႔ေထာက္ခံမႈလည္း ရရွိလာသည္။ ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္မွဴးႀကီး သန္းေရႊႏွင့္ သူရဦးေရႊမန္းကို ေက်ာ္၍ ဦးသိန္းစိန္ကို သမၼတအျဖစ္ ေရြးခ်ယ္ခဲ့သည္။ သူရဦးေရႊမန္းကို လက္ညွိဳးေထာင္ ေခါင္းညိမ့္လုပ္ရသည့္ ေအာက္လႊတ္ေတာ္ ဥကၠအျဖစ္သာ ေရြးခ်ယ္ခဲ့သည္။ ထို႔ေၾကာင့္ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲ ျဖစ္စဥ္တြင္ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ႏွင့္ NLD ပါဝင္လာမႈကို ေထာက္ခံခဲ့သည္။ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ၏ လႊတ္ေတာ္ကို အေမရိကန္ျပည္ေထာင္စု၏ လႊတ္ေတာ္ကဲ့သို႔ ျဖစ္ေစခ်င္ေၾကာင္း သူရဦးေရႊမန္းက အေမရိကန္ ႏိုင္ငံျခားေရးဝန္ႀကီး ဟီလာရီကလင္တန္ကို ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
အေရးႀကီးသည့္ ေဆာင္ရြက္စရာမ်ားကို လုပ္ေဆာင္ခဲ့ၿပီး ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊ လာမည့္ၾကားျဖတ္ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲကို လြတ္လပ္၍ တရားမွ်တစြာ က်င္းပသြားမည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ဥေရာပသမဂၢဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးေရးဝန္ႀကီး Andris Piebalgs က ယခုသီတင္းပတ္ အေစာပိုင္းက ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။ ၾကားျဖတ္ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲသည္ အနာဂတ္ လူႀကီးလူေကာင္း သေဘာတူညီခ်က္၏ လားရာကို ေဖာ္ျပမည္ ျဖစ္သည္။ ၾကားျဖတ္ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲသည္ ျပည္ေထာင္စုႀကံ့ခိုင္ေရးႏွင့္ ဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးေရးပါတီအေပၚတြင္လည္း အက်ိဳးသက္ေရာက္မည္ ျဖစ္ၿပီး ၂၀၁၅ ခုႏွစ္ အေထြေထြ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲတြင္ ခက္ခက္ခဲခဲ ယွဥ္ၿပိဳင္ၾကရမည္ ျဖစ္သည္။
ဦးသိန္းစိန္သည္ သမၼတသက္တမ္းတစ္ခုတြင္သာ ေဆာင္ရြက္မည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း တိုးတိုးတိတ္တိတ္ ေျပာဆို ထားသည္။ သူရဦးေရႊမန္းသည္ ၂၀၁၅ အေထြေထြေရြးေကာက္ပြဲတြင္ ဝင္ေရာက္ယွဥ္ၿပိဳင္၍ သမၼတအျဖစ္ ေဆာင္ရြက္ရန္ ရည္မွန္းထားသူ ျဖစ္သည္။ ယင္းသို႔ေဆာင္ရြက္ရာတြင္ ဦးေအာင္ေသာင္း၊ ဦးေဌးဦးႏွင့္ ေမာင္ေမာင္သိန္း စသည့္ သေဘာထားတင္းမာသူမ်ား အပါအဝင္ အျခားအတားအဆီး မ်ားကိုလည္း ေက်ာ္ျဖတ္ရဖြယ္ရွိသည္ဟု သူရဦးေရႊမန္း၏ အႀကံေပးမ်ား၏ ေျပာဆိုခ်က္အရ သိရွိရသည္။
အစိုးရအဖြဲ႔အတြင္း သူရဦးေရႊမန္းႏွင့္ မဟာမိတ္မ်ား၏ ေမွ်ာ္လင့္ခ်က္မွာ ၾကားျဖတ္ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲတြင္ NLD ပါတီက တစ္ဖက္ေစာင္းနင္းအႏိုင္ရရွိပါက ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရးကို ဆန္႔က်င္ေနသည့္ သေဘာထား တင္းမားသူမ်ားကို ဖယ္ထုတ္ရန္ႏွင့္ သန္႔ရွင္းေသာ အစိုးရကို တည္ေဆာက္ရန္အတြက္ ႏိုင္ငံေရး ဆင္ေျခ ဆင္လတ္ တစ္ခု ရရွိၿပီး အေထာက္အကူ ျဖစ္ေစႏိုင္သည္ ဆိုသည့္ အခ်က္ပင္ ျဖစ္သည္။
ထူးျခားသည့္အခ်က္မွာ သမၼတႀကီး ဦးသိန္းစိန္ႏွင့္ အဖြဲ႔သည္ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ကို ေထာက္ခံ ေၾကာင္း ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္ အတၳဳပတၱိကို ေရးသားခဲ့သည့္ စာေရးဆရာတစ္ဦးလည္း ျဖစ္၊ ၿဗိတိန္ ပညာရွင္တစ္ဦးလည္း ျဖစ္သူ Justin Wintle က ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။ ယင္းလကၡဏာမွာ အဆိုးျမင္စရာ မဟုတ္ေၾကာင္း၊ ႏိုင္ငံေရးၿပိဳင္ဘက္မ်ားႏွင့္ သေဘာတူညီခ်က္ ရယူႏိုင္သည့္ နည္းလမ္းတစ္ခုမွာ ပူးေပါင္းေဆာင္ရြက္သည့္ နည္းလမ္းျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊ သို႔ေသာ္ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ၏ ေျပာင္းလဲမႈျဖစ္စဥ္မွာ စစ္မွန္သည့္ ေျပာင္းလဲမႈတစ္ခုဟု ဆိုရန္မွာ ျခြင္းခ်က္တစ္ခုထားရွိရဦးမည္ ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ၄င္းက သုံးသပ္ေျပာဆိုခဲ့သည္။
Precarious balance for Myanmar reform
Larry Jagan
Asia Times online
February 16, 2012
The future of Myanmar's reform process is in question as hardliners and liberals in government ramp up an increasingly bitter power struggle. Change in Myanmar remains fragile despite some encouraging reform signals and growing international goodwill towards President Thein Sein.
So far, though, President Thein Sein's good intentions have produced only limited practical change. Now, there are growing fears that the recent political gains, including the release of political prisoners and allowances for the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) to contest upcoming by-elections, could be reversed.
The reason is that the more liberal-minded ministers who support Thein Sein and his reform agenda are being cramped by persistent pressure from hardliners led by Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo and other ministers who seem intent to derail reforms despite publicly declaring their support for democratic change.
Analysts and activists are split on whether these signs of change are genuine or a smokescreen to hide the regime's real intention to keep the military in power for as long as possible under the guise of civilian rule. Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has so far tentatively endorsed Thein Sein's reforms but according to sources close to her remains cautious.
Much rides for all sides on by-elections scheduled for April 1, where 46 of parliament's total 664 seats will be up for grabs and Suu Kyi will contest a seat on the outskirts of Yangon. The NLD overwhelmingly won polls held in 1990 but the military annulled the results and maintained its grip on power. The party failed to register and contest the 2010 elections and was banned as a result.
Both the European Union and United States have indicated they may roll back their economic and financial sanctions with more progress on reforms, including the holding of free and fair by-elections in April. The elections should also provide clarity about whether government reformers or hardliners are on the ascendency as well as the pace and extent of future reforms.
According to one government insider's estimate, around 20% of current ministers are in the liberal camp while another 20% fall with the hardliners. The other 60% are believed to be sitting on the fence waiting to see and side with whoever wins the intensifying power struggle, according to the government insider.
Other observers believe that the apparent divisions and splits among the ruling elite, both sides with military backgrounds, are being well-orchestrated and stress that the nature of the regime has not changed. They believe that even though the old military guard - led by former junta leader Senior General Than Shwe - have retired they still pull strings from behind the political curtain.
"President Thein Sein is a puppet of the new Myanmar government's strategy known as the eight-steps," said Aung Lynn Htut, a former military intelligence officer who defected when stationed as a diplomat in Washington in 2005, told Asia Times Online. "Than Shwe still directs policy and controls everything from behind the door," he said.
Others with links to top members of Thein Sein's government disagree and argue that the new nominally civilian government is sincere in its desire to bring reform, development and peace to Myanmar after decades of devastation and destruction under heavy-handed military rule.
"Thein Sein and his supporters are motivated by a 'gentlemen's' agenda," Myanmar academic, writer and editor Nay Win Maung, who died of a heart attack on January 1, frequently said of the new government he personally, advised. Old soldiers now in government and aligned with Thein Sein are now motivated by a new sense of fair play and public duty, sources close to the current Myanmar leadership told this correspondent.
Many of them now claim to have abhorred Than Shwe's abusive rule, including its mass corruption, international isolation and the tarnished image it gave the army across the country. To reverse Than Shwe's legacy is one of the key drivers behind Thein Sein's reform agenda, they contend.
Thein Sein recently told Norway's development minister that he had wanted to reform the country for a long time but was frustrated by Than Shwe's control, according to diplomats in Yangon. Thein Sein's wife told Suu Kyi that her husband wanted to introduce reforms for more than a decade but was powerless to do so, even when serving as prime minister under the previous Than Shwe-led military junta.
Pent up reformer
Some close to Thein Sein believe that the 2007 mass demonstrations by Buddhist monks against the previous military junta he led and the devastation and destruction caused the following year by Cyclone Nargis impressed on him the need for dramatic change, according to military sources in the capital, Naypyidaw.
Thein Sein was reportedly physically shaken by the devastation he observed when inspecting storm-hit areas and overseeing the government's relief work after Cyclone Nargis, a close aide to the president told Asia Times Online. Nor is Thein Sein apparently alone in this view: there are also many in the bureaucracy and military who are firmly committed to his democratic reform agenda.
"There are those in the military with honorable intentions and who want to be seen as improving the sorry lot of the people," said David Steinberg, a Myanmar expert at the US's Georgetown University. These same soldiers have a strong sense of nationalism and strong desire to redeem the honor of the military, Steinberg said.
Reforms have so far been implemented in an ad hoc, personalized manner. For example, Railways Minister Aung Min now leads the government's negotiations with various armed ethnic rebel groups to sign ceasefire agreements. Some of the ethnic leaders involved in the talks who spoke with this correspondent say that they trust in Aung Min's sincerity.
"It's personal," an ethnic Karen leader told Asia Times Online soon after the armed Karen National Union (KNU) signed a truce last month to end hostilities and agreed to exchange liaison offices with the government. Trust with the Karen was built during relaxed drinking sessions at preliminary meetings held last November in Thailand's northern Chiang Rai province, according to a source familiar with the situation.
During one of the toasts, Aung Min apparently endeared himself to certain Karen representatives when he pleaded personally that the KNU refrained from attacking public railways. There had been several attacks on Myanmar's railways earlier in the year that were believed to have been carried out by the KNU.
Some observers believe that personalized approach could eventually backfire. "Everything appears to be the result of personal connections - even the relationship between Aung San Suu Kyi and the president," said a former European diplomat who has spent more than 15 years involved in Myanmar. "That is the major flaw in this whole process - there is no overall plan so it can be thrown out overnight if circumstances change."
"Until these changes are institutionalized, there is a danger of them being reversed in the future, especially if corruption continues and there is violence," said Thailand-based former activist and development specialist Aung Naing Oo, who recently visited Myanmar for the first time in over 20 years.
The overriding concern of Myanmar's ruling establishment - both liberals and hardliners alike - is to maintain peace and stability during the political transition. Fear of renewed bouts of unrest could explain why the highly anticipated release of political prisoners was delayed for several months. Those fears also likely motivated the recent arrest and questioning of Buddhist monk U Gambira, who was recently released early from a 68-year prison sentence for his role in the 2007 uprising against the government.
Than Shwe's transitional plan clearly intended to delay reforms and pit military groups against one another in a divide and rule fashion. The 2008 constitution, which was passed in a sham referendum and embodies Than Shwe's vision for the Myanmar's political future, was intended to create a system of power sharing whereby no individual would become powerful enough to challenge his position and family's wealth. Than Shwe famously detained and harassed the family members of former long time military dictator Ne Win.
Than Shwe's new system also aims to create a structure that makes legal change difficult, including a requirement than over three-quarters of parliament must agree to make constitutional amendments. A quarter of parliament is made up of military representatives, giving the military virtual veto power over any proposed charter change.
Gentleman's agreement
However, Than Shwe seems to have failed to foresee that new President Thein Sein, speaker of the lower house Shwe Mann and army chief General Min Aung Hlaing would reach a "gentlemen's agenda" in ruling the country. This agreement has spurred an accelerated reform process that has gained momentum and moral authority through Suu Kyi's public support and upcoming participation in the process.
Often overlooked in Myanmar's evolving transition is the role parliament has played in the reform process. Analysts and activists widely believed that the upper and lower houses of the new National Assembly would rarely meet and when they did would dutifully follow a pre-arranged script - much like the Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP) parliament in the mid-1970s did under Ne Win. So far that has not been the case. Parliament speaker Shwe Mann was apparently devastated when Than Shwe overlooked him and chose Thein Sein as president, confining Shwe Mann instead to what was expected to be a rubber stamp parliament. To give parliament a more representative veneer, Shwe Mann has lent his support to Suu Kyi's and the NLD's participation in the upcoming by-elections.
He also reportedly told US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a meeting at Naypyidaw in December that he wanted to make Myanmar's new parliament as good as the US Congress.
"We have taken the necessary measures so that the upcoming by-elections will be free, fair and credible," Shwe Mann told European Union development commissioner Andris Piebalgs, speaking through an interpreter, earlier this week.
The manner in which the by-elections are held, even more than the actual results, may indicate the future direction of the gentlemen's agreement. At the least, the by-election results will affect the ruling Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP), which swept the November 2010 elections in a contest foreign observers said lacked credibility but is expected to face stiffer competition, including from the NLD, at the next general elections scheduled for 2015.
Thein Sein has unofficially announced that he will only serve one term as president; Shwe Mann has made it clear he would like to one day serve as president. To win a free and fair election in 2015, however, he will need to purge the USDP of dead wood and obstacles - including hardliners like Aung Thaung, Htay Oo and Maung Maung Thein, according to Shwe Mann's senior advisors.
The hope among Shwe Mann's allies in government is that a lopsided by-election win for the NLD will provide him with the political excuse to clean house and purge hardliners opposed to reforms. If Suu Kyi wins a seat in parliament, Shwe Mann will be expected to allow her to become opposition leader. However, any strategy leveraging Suu Kyi to gain political ground against hardliners will be fraught with dangers and could open new divisions with those who currently support the reform process.
"What is remarkable is the way in which Thein Sein and company have reached out to her [Suu Kyi] since August last year [when they first met in Naypyidaw]," said Justin Wintle, a British academic and writer of a biography on Suu Kyi. "The signs are that this has not been a cynical move. One way of dealing with your political enemies is to co-opt them, but this is a genuine attempt to reconfigure Myanmar," he said.
Yet even this potentially crucial move reflects the ad hoc nature of Myanmar's still tentative reform process. If Suu Kyi is elected to parliament at the upcoming by-elections, she will quickly emerge as a challenger to Shwe Mann and the USDP's current dominance at the 2015 polls. "I know, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it," Shwe Mann reportedly recently replied to his son Toe Naing Mann, according to sources close to the family
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